NDP Federal Election Platform — Energy & Climate Chapter
Executive summary
The NDP's 2025 election platform included a comprehensive energy and climate package spanning electricity, buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors. The EPM conducted an integrated multi-sector assessment of the combined policy package, applying M3 Platform models to each sector and aggregating the results against the national 2030 target.
Key findings
Aggregate emissions: The integrated platform is projected to deliver 38–44% emissions reductions by 2030 relative to 2005 — below the stated 50% target but above current federal policy trajectory.
Buildings: The heat pump retrofit program is the single largest driver of projected reductions, accounting for 28% of total platform abatement.
Implementation risk: The industrial transition fund, representing 40% of projected abatement in the electricity and oil and gas sectors, carries the highest implementation uncertainty given the scale and complexity of procurement required.
Expert interpretive brief available
An academic partner has published an interpretive brief on this assessment.
Methodology
This assessment was produced using the M3 Platform, a suite of energy-economy models maintained by the Energy Modelling Hub and supported by Open Insights and academic partners. Policy measures were encoded using the standardized EPM Policy Encoding framework, run against the EMH Assumptions Database baseline, and validated through independent QAQC review.
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